Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210915 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.30    125.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  19.6  22.1  24.7  35.7  50.5  63.6  64.9  F  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  24.0  11.0   1.0  16.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.9  96.5  88.5  77.7  71.1  68.0  30.8  26.2  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  40.0  23.0  37.0  73.0  35.0  36.0   2.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  45.0  44.0  48.0  53.0  49.0  37.0  28.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   4.0   2.0   0.0  12.0   0.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.8%        5.7%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%       12.7%        8.7%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%        6.5%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%        6.2%        4.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        6.2%        3.4%
 45kt / 36h        1.0%        7.1%        4.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons