Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.10    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  26.9  26.9  32.6  41.9  46.8  33.7  29.7  N  N  N  U VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  14.0  20.0  10.0   0.0   0.0  12.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         83.5  81.6  76.2  63.0  19.7  42.0  66.1  78.0  N  N  U  U VU  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  35.0  45.0  66.0  36.0   6.0 -53.0 -69.0  U  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  51.0  54.0  54.0  50.0  41.0  34.0  34.0 VU  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   4.0  11.0  16.0  36.0  42.0 -11.0 -12.0  U  N  U  U VU VU  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        1.3%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.7%        1.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        1.1%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons