Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210916 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.30    126.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    100.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  33.8  39.4  37.7  40.7  38.4  36.3  23.8  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0   6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  28.0  26.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.2  76.0  38.7  33.3  51.7  52.9  76.0  88.5  N  U  U VU  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  65.0  31.0   5.0 -10.0 -38.0 -69.0  -6.0  U  N  N  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  53.0  51.0  47.0  40.0  41.0  45.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  13.0  35.0  22.0  12.0  -7.0  -5.0  -4.0  U  U VU VU  U  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons