Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.90    127.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.9  43.6  41.7  34.0  42.5  38.6  32.5  17.0  U VU VU  U VU  U  U  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  14.0   0.0  14.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         82.7  47.7  40.9  50.9  57.9  54.3  82.7  89.8  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  38.0   1.0   0.0 -32.0 -21.0 -56.0  -6.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  48.0  45.0  36.0  32.0  39.0  44.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  32.0  27.0   7.0   9.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0 VU VU VU  N  U  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons