Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210917 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.40    129.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.6  43.2  37.8  41.2  43.2  29.1  19.2  14.4 VU VU  U VU VU  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0  21.0  33.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         59.3  38.4  45.0  47.8  57.0  79.6  98.5 119.6  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0   2.0   0.0   2.0 -16.0 -52.0 -20.0  -6.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  43.0  40.0  32.0  33.0  42.0  44.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.0  22.0   5.0  19.0   7.0  -5.0  -3.0   3.0 VU VU  N VU  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons