Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210917 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.80    131.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.5  39.2  37.4  41.8  40.9  31.4  19.3  13.6 VU  U  U VU VU  U  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   3.0  23.0  18.0  23.0  23.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  51.7  58.2  75.0  78.0  91.2  96.6 100.5  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0   7.0  -4.0 -21.0 -33.0 -59.0  -5.0 -12.0  N  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  51.0  46.0  44.0  40.0  44.0  46.0  44.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  20.0  13.0  17.0   7.0   3.0  -1.0   0.0  10.0 VU  U  U  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons