Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210918 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.10    136.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.8  39.5  39.9  35.6  32.9  18.4  16.0  15.2  U  U  U  U  U  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0   8.0  15.0  14.0   8.0   9.0  14.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.3  75.5  90.0  99.3 101.0 104.4 108.0 104.4  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -18.0 -12.0 -25.0   2.0 -64.0 -38.0 -46.0  -1.0  U  U VU  U VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  46.0  45.0  41.0  44.0  51.0  51.0  52.0  U VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0  -4.0 -13.0  -3.0  -3.0   5.0  11.0  N  N  F VF  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons