Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210918 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.00    139.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.5  29.5  28.1  27.3  19.0  15.0  10.9  15.2  U  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  16.0  13.0  14.0  19.0  28.0  28.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.0 118.0 118.0 118.0 123.5 133.6 144.6 103.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -12.0  -6.0 -18.0 -54.0 -37.0 -52.0  13.0  19.0  U  U  U VU VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   36.0  36.0  34.0  36.0  39.0  37.0  40.0  51.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   7.0  12.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        4.9%        2.8%        3.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons