Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP192021 210918 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.50    139.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.6  30.3  24.6  21.4  17.0  13.7  10.2  19.2  U  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  16.0  17.0  19.0  27.0  29.0  19.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.0 118.0 121.6 123.5 131.5 142.3 137.9  79.8  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0 -18.0 -53.0 -61.0 -52.0  -6.0  22.0  32.0  U  U VU VU VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   35.0  35.0  35.0  39.0  39.0  38.0  48.0  52.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0   9.0   7.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.6%        0.6%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%        2.9%        3.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons