Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80    147.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     58.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.9  10.1   6.6  10.5  18.8  16.0  21.8  23.7  F  F VF  F  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  121.0 125.0 128.0 128.0 124.0 115.0 114.0 101.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  73.0  79.0  97.0 108.0 105.0 127.0 111.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  63.0  68.0  64.0  64.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -4.0  -2.0  -1.0   6.0   5.0   6.0  13.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       11.8%       24.8%       18.3%
 25kt / 24h       67.4%       84.6%       76.0%
 30kt / 24h       48.8%       74.6%       61.7%
 35kt / 24h       29.4%       73.0%       51.2%
 40kt / 24h       12.9%       73.0%       43.0%
 45kt / 36h       70.6%       92.6%       81.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       87.8%       43.9%
 55kt / 48h       99.4%       99.4%       99.4%
 70kt / 48h       99.4%       88.8%       94.1%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       94.0%       77.9%