Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    144.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         7.6  10.9  15.4  17.6  22.0  32.3  32.8  43.4 VF  F  F  F  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  127.0 127.0 127.0 125.0 125.0 118.0 114.0 102.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  73.0  72.0  75.0  78.0  90.0  84.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  63.0  63.0  59.0  66.0  68.0  71.0  74.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0   1.0   3.0   5.0  11.0  15.0  14.0   5.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.4%       19.7%       14.0%
 25kt / 24h       56.6%       74.4%       65.5%
 30kt / 24h       35.4%       60.5%       47.9%
 35kt / 24h       20.9%       57.9%       39.4%
 40kt / 24h        5.3%       57.5%       31.4%
 45kt / 36h       48.9%       81.2%       65.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       67.3%       33.6%
 55kt / 48h       73.4%       61.9%       67.6%
 70kt / 48h       73.4%       53.1%       63.2%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       62.7%       62.3%