Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210923 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    141.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5  16.8  17.0  21.9  30.6  43.2  52.5  65.1  F  F  F  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  128.0 126.0 123.0 121.0 116.0 106.0 101.0  97.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    79.0  96.0  93.0  89.0  82.0 105.0 130.0  94.0  N  F  F  F  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  70.0  72.0  75.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   6.0   7.0  13.0  13.0  19.0  14.0 -24.0  N  N  N  U  U VU  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.0%       28.0%       25.5%
 25kt / 24h       70.1%       78.0%       74.0%
 30kt / 24h       54.8%       64.8%       59.8%
 35kt / 24h       31.3%       64.7%       48.0%
 40kt / 24h       27.2%       64.7%       45.9%
 45kt / 36h       55.1%       72.1%       63.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       51.3%       25.6%
 55kt / 48h       51.1%       43.6%       47.3%
 70kt / 48h       26.9%       26.7%       26.8%
 65kt / 72h       61.3%       18.2%       39.8%