Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210924 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60    140.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  16.9  22.9  28.5  32.7  52.4  59.2  68.3  F  F  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  113.0 113.0 110.0 100.0  82.0  73.0  71.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  81.0  77.0  85.0  51.0 142.0  93.0  95.0  N  N  N  F  N VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  69.0  70.0  68.0  73.0  73.0  78.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  10.0  16.0  15.0  13.0  46.0   1.0 -26.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.2%       26.8%       26.0%
 25kt / 24h       62.4%       70.2%       66.3%
 30kt / 24h       46.1%       56.3%       51.2%
 35kt / 24h       28.0%       56.3%       42.1%
 40kt / 24h       23.5%       55.7%       39.6%
 45kt / 36h       41.6%       56.8%       49.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       33.5%       16.7%
 55kt / 48h       33.4%       24.1%       28.8%
 70kt / 48h       23.3%        9.6%       16.5%
 65kt / 72h       23.9%        6.5%       15.2%