Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210924 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    140.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  19.6  24.2  22.2  32.3  40.1  51.2  56.9  F  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  125.0 122.0 117.0 113.0 109.0 106.0  99.0  94.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   103.0  78.0  57.0  57.0  31.0 121.0  94.0  81.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  66.0  67.0  71.0  69.0  73.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0  16.0  15.0   7.0   5.0  -6.0 -15.0 -36.0  N  U  U  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       16.4%       24.9%       20.7%
 25kt / 24h       61.7%       71.4%       66.6%
 30kt / 24h       42.8%       58.8%       50.8%
 35kt / 24h       27.3%       58.8%       43.0%
 40kt / 24h       12.6%       57.5%       35.1%
 45kt / 36h       42.5%       59.3%       50.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       36.7%       18.4%
 55kt / 48h       46.7%       35.4%       41.0%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       16.9%       20.8%
 65kt / 72h       53.0%       17.5%       35.2%