Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210924 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.10    139.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.4  17.7  16.2  13.2  20.3  18.8  21.8  17.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  101.0  91.0  86.0  84.0  92.0 102.0  98.0  77.0  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   115.0  98.0 106.0  65.0  81.0 125.0 126.0 123.0  F  F  F  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  62.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   8.0  13.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       25.0%       31.4%       28.2%
 25kt / 24h       73.9%       81.7%       77.8%
 30kt / 24h       56.4%       77.0%       66.7%
 35kt / 24h       39.9%       77.0%       58.4%
 40kt / 24h       29.8%       75.4%       52.6%
 45kt / 36h       62.6%       74.2%       68.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       57.7%       28.8%
 55kt / 48h       52.3%       68.8%       60.5%
 70kt / 48h       28.2%       45.0%       36.6%
 65kt / 72h       61.9%       64.3%       63.1%