Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210924 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    138.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     88.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.7  23.1  26.2  34.0  46.1  54.6  66.0  72.3  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  116.0 112.0 113.0 109.0 105.0  99.0  93.0  77.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  57.0  36.0  31.0 121.0  94.0  81.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  74.0  76.0  73.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0   7.0   8.0   6.0   3.0 -15.0 -30.0 -39.0  U  N  U  N  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       64.7%       48.4%       56.5%
 25kt / 24h       76.1%       79.9%       78.0%
 30kt / 24h       68.5%       75.7%       72.1%
 35kt / 24h       64.6%       75.7%       70.2%
 40kt / 24h       38.9%       73.0%       56.0%
 45kt / 36h       46.2%       58.2%       52.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       35.5%       17.7%
 55kt / 48h       27.2%       20.2%       23.7%
 70kt / 48h       12.1%        8.6%       10.4%
 65kt / 72h        8.2%        4.7%        6.4%