Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210925 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    138.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  29.2  30.1  42.0  47.0  57.4  66.1  68.1  N  N  N VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   92.0  83.0  79.0  75.0  69.0  67.0  66.0  69.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   113.0  68.0  63.0  92.0 109.0  94.0  66.0  99.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  73.0  74.0  74.0  74.0  77.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0   6.0   2.0  12.0  21.0  10.0  -9.0  33.0  U  N  N  U VU  U  F VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       66.7%       39.3%       53.0%
 25kt / 24h       73.2%       69.5%       71.4%
 30kt / 24h       62.0%       64.8%       63.4%
 35kt / 24h       60.0%       64.8%       62.4%
 40kt / 24h       40.8%       61.4%       51.1%
 45kt / 36h       36.5%       33.7%       35.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.3%        7.1%
 55kt / 48h        8.0%        9.1%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        2.1%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.7%        0.9%        0.8%