Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    137.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     98.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.1  31.0  40.6  43.0  53.6  56.8  63.9  69.9  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  113.0 110.0 106.0 107.0 101.0  96.0  80.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  63.0  92.0 126.0  86.0  96.0  77.0  94.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  72.0  73.0  75.0  79.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   8.0  12.0   0.0   1.0  -7.0   4.0  26.0  N  U  U  N  N  F  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       75.1%       35.7%       55.4%
 25kt / 24h       68.8%       53.2%       61.0%
 30kt / 24h       57.5%       44.2%       50.8%
 35kt / 24h       53.2%       44.2%       48.7%
 40kt / 24h       42.1%       40.4%       41.2%
 45kt / 36h       54.1%       20.7%       37.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.4%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h        7.2%        2.5%        4.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%