Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210925 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.10    137.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  19.8  21.8  26.7  37.6  34.5  45.4  42.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  70.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  69.0  70.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  64.0 119.0 126.0 102.0  42.0  82.0  56.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  71.0  72.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   3.0   7.0  16.0  14.0  -1.0  52.0  15.0  N  N  N  U  U  N VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       64.6%       25.4%       45.0%
 25kt / 24h       52.1%       38.6%       45.4%
 30kt / 24h       39.1%       31.9%       35.5%
 35kt / 24h       36.3%       31.9%       34.1%
 40kt / 24h       26.8%       28.7%       27.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%