Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210926 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    136.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   140.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   140.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     98.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    120.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  27.1  31.6  33.1  36.7  40.3  51.0  58.5  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   117.0 101.0  83.0 125.0  23.0  21.0 -16.0  16.0  F  F  N  F  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  70.0  72.0  69.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   6.0   2.0   3.0 -11.0  19.0  30.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  F VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       39.4%        0.0%       19.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%