Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210926 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    136.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     94.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     85.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  31.6  33.1  36.8  42.1  45.4  60.0  73.9  N  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  108.0 108.0 102.0 104.0  98.0  82.0  74.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   101.0  83.0 125.0  71.0  66.0  22.0   7.0  21.0  F  N  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  65.0  70.0  72.0  70.0  69.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   2.0   3.0 -11.0  -4.0  29.0  40.0  28.0  N  N  N  F  F VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%