Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210926 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    136.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   130.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   130.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.3  32.8  36.8  36.5  31.1  40.0  55.9  54.5  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  69.0  69.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  57.0  48.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0  35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  69.0  44.0  48.0  52.0  32.0  36.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  70.0  69.0  71.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  12.0  -2.0  -3.0   5.0  23.0  87.0  24.0  N  U  N  N  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        0.5%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        0.7%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%