Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210927 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.90    136.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     75.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  25.5  26.2  24.5  25.9  37.2  37.8  53.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   95.0  86.0  80.0  75.0  71.0  64.0  57.0  42.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  50.0  53.0  43.0  19.0  29.0  16.0  20.0  U  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  68.0  64.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -9.0   2.0  21.0  13.0  45.0  21.0  43.0  F  F  N VU  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.4%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%        5.1%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.8%        3.0%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.5%        2.6%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h       10.7%        1.4%        6.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        0.8%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%