Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210927 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.10    136.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.9  18.1  15.5  16.5  20.4  22.5  33.1  44.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  60.0  62.0  66.0  61.0  52.0  54.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  24.0  14.0   0.0  -4.0  41.0  61.0  14.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  10.0  13.0  23.0  17.0  10.0  25.0  N  N  U  U VU  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.5%        4.9%        4.7%
 25kt / 24h       11.1%       18.8%       15.0%
 30kt / 24h        9.2%       14.6%       11.9%
 35kt / 24h        9.2%       14.6%       11.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%       13.5%        7.1%
 45kt / 36h       22.1%        5.9%       14.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        6.4%        4.2%        5.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%