Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210928 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    136.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     90.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     60.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.5   9.7  11.5  14.0  19.5  19.4  18.9  28.3  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  64.0  66.0  62.0  54.0  49.0  49.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  69.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  57.0  68.0  88.0  75.0  65.0  49.0  64.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  66.0  61.0  61.0  60.0  56.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   4.0   5.0  11.0  18.0  13.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       33.4%       25.9%       29.6%
 25kt / 24h       54.1%       57.5%       55.8%
 30kt / 24h       44.8%       56.5%       50.7%
 35kt / 24h       44.8%       56.5%       50.7%
 40kt / 24h       15.8%       53.6%       34.7%
 45kt / 36h       72.8%       37.1%       55.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       22.0%       11.0%
 55kt / 48h       29.9%       17.3%       23.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%