Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210928 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    135.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.6  11.8  15.2  15.1  14.6  24.9  41.9  63.7  F  F  F  F  F  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   69.0  67.0  67.0  64.0  53.0  38.0  29.0  18.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  64.6  47.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  13.0  18.0  31.0  15.0  33.0  43.0  87.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  66.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  63.0  58.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   4.0  12.0   7.0   2.0   1.0 -10.0 -60.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       34.1%       27.0%       30.5%
 25kt / 24h       45.2%       50.2%       47.7%
 30kt / 24h       45.2%       49.2%       47.2%
 35kt / 24h       45.2%       49.2%       47.2%
 40kt / 24h        9.5%       46.3%       27.9%
 45kt / 36h       63.3%       32.4%       47.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       19.3%        9.6%
 55kt / 48h       18.5%       11.4%       14.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%