Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210928 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60    135.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     90.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.4  14.2  17.3  18.0  24.6  38.5  47.5  59.9  F  F  F  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  57.0  51.0  48.0  42.0  43.0  11.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  52.3  35.5   4.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  28.0  31.0   4.0  40.0  33.0  93.0  81.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  63.0  60.0  59.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0   3.0   5.0  -2.0 -14.0  -4.0 -20.0 -32.0 VU  N  N  N VF  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       48.7%       26.3%       37.5%
 25kt / 24h       39.8%       40.6%       40.2%
 30kt / 24h       39.8%       38.7%       39.2%
 35kt / 24h       39.8%       38.7%       39.2%
 40kt / 24h       11.3%       35.4%       23.4%
 45kt / 36h       70.8%       25.3%       48.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%