Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210929 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.20    135.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     77.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  17.8  23.9  23.5  30.9  48.4  59.1  84.6  F  F  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  52.0  44.0  39.0  26.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  42.3  18.0  -8.3 -46.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  19.0  15.0  37.0  35.0  85.0  75.0  40.0  N  U  U  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  57.0  51.0  41.0  36.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   3.0  23.0  17.0  39.0  24.0  65.0  93.0  N  N VU  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       17.2%        8.5%       12.9%
 25kt / 24h       12.8%       11.9%       12.4%
 30kt / 24h       12.8%        8.1%       10.5%
 35kt / 24h       12.8%        8.1%       10.5%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%        7.4%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%