Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210929 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.90    135.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   115.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   115.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.9  21.9  22.9  28.0  36.9  53.8  63.3  77.2  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  54.0  31.0  39.0  10.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         50.0  50.0  50.0  47.0  25.5  -5.6 -39.6 -67.1  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  65.0  71.0  55.0  68.0  40.0  61.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  57.0  59.0  59.0  60.0  53.0  41.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  N  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  22.0  26.0  26.0  15.0  33.0  28.0  10.0  U VU VU VU  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.4%        3.3%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%        6.2%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.2%        3.6%        3.9%
 35kt / 24h        4.2%        3.4%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        3.2%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%