Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210930 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70    136.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.1  26.6  29.7  32.9  44.0  59.6  77.6 104.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  30.0  39.0  13.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  64.3  52.9  46.5  19.6 -25.3 -47.7 -55.8  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0   8.0  35.0  55.0 110.0  96.0  52.0 146.0  N  U  N  N  F  F  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  59.0  62.0  60.0  56.0  43.0  41.0  46.0  U  U  N  N  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  20.0  21.0  33.0  -3.0  17.0  48.0 137.0  N VU VU VU  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        1.3%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.0%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%