Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210930 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.00    137.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  31.4  35.2  41.6  49.9  72.6  81.8 106.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  24.0  18.0  12.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.0  62.9  54.4  43.0  12.9 -27.3 -44.2 -46.4  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  35.0  54.0  99.0 101.0  68.0  93.0 121.0  U  N  N  F  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  51.0  38.0  43.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.0  20.0  27.0   5.0  -4.0  -1.0 140.0 195.0 VU VU VU  N  F  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%