Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 210930 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.40    139.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.1  37.9  47.7  50.2  71.0  72.2  90.7 103.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0   9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         62.4  53.0  35.0  18.2 -10.4 -32.3 -35.5 -37.8  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0 104.0  90.0  84.0  97.0  83.0  75.0 104.0  N  F  F  N  F  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  61.0  55.0  51.0  41.0  37.0  38.0  39.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0  24.0  62.0  35.0  42.0   6.0  16.0 -12.0  U VU VU VU VU  N  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.3%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons