Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 211001 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.10    141.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        45.6  51.5  58.2  69.0  80.6  94.9  98.3  72.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         49.4  32.2   8.7  -4.6 -29.4 -35.4 -37.2 -38.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    80.0  76.0  71.0  76.0  63.0  72.0 108.0  92.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  56.0  52.0  47.0  41.0  48.0  62.0  69.0  N  U  U VU VU  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  63.0  63.0  42.0   7.0  29.0  27.0   8.0 VU VU VU VU  N VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons