Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP202021 211001 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.80    144.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     17.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        54.3  59.1  76.7  82.9  94.7  84.2  60.5  41.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         11.2  -3.2 -13.5 -19.8 -22.2 -22.2 -23.6 -24.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    23.0  53.0  91.0 120.0  98.0 132.0  90.0  63.0  U  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  50.0  47.0  45.0  53.0  60.0  66.0  68.0  U  U VU VU  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  61.0  45.0  43.0  29.0  42.0 -13.0   0.0 -34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VF  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons