Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212021 210922 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  26.4  21.5  23.0  27.5  29.3  30.8  28.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  36.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 115.5  80.4 117.4 130.1 113.5 106.2  F  F  N  N  N  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0  89.0  92.0  94.0  93.0  92.0  63.0  47.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  85.0  84.0  84.0  85.0  88.0  89.0  91.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -5.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   9.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        2.6%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%       12.9%        8.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        4.4%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.6%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        3.6%        1.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       17.0%        8.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.5%        2.8%
 55kt / 48h        4.1%        2.3%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.3%        5.2%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        7.8%        4.4%