Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212021 210923 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    111.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     60.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  24.2  23.0  29.2  26.1  29.5  28.8  25.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 114.4  75.4  76.7 122.9 116.5 116.5 118.6  F  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0  92.0  94.0  75.0 105.0  74.0  54.0  57.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  80.0  81.0  83.0  86.0  85.0  87.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   6.0  -2.0   1.0   4.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.6%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        5.0%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.7%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%       10.5%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        0.5%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        4.7%        2.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons