Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP212021 210923 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.30    110.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     44.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  22.9  26.8  25.4  25.4  27.7  27.7  26.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         91.0  52.8  45.0  58.8  65.5  63.2  52.8 115.7  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0  94.0  75.0  93.0  92.0  64.0  41.0  61.0  F  F  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  79.0  81.0  82.0  84.0  85.0  86.0  86.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -1.0  -3.0   1.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.3%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.3%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        6.9%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons