Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222021 211007 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    111.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    133.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.1   8.9  14.9  19.3  18.9  23.1  19.5  26.8  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   40.0  37.0  35.0  29.0  20.0   8.0  32.0  16.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 116.5 101.2 135.0 132.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    89.0  96.0 105.0 121.0 102.0 114.0  46.0  11.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  74.0  73.0  76.0  77.0  75.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   4.0   3.0   4.0   5.0   4.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.2%       12.0%        9.1%
 25kt / 24h       40.2%       64.5%       52.4%
 30kt / 24h       18.1%       45.6%       31.8%
 35kt / 24h       12.4%       45.6%       29.0%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%       45.6%       24.9%
 45kt / 36h       27.5%       71.0%       49.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       52.4%       26.2%
 55kt / 48h       33.6%       23.4%       28.5%
 70kt / 48h       23.4%       35.8%       29.6%
 65kt / 72h       25.9%       41.9%       33.9%