Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222021 211007 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    110.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.8  13.2  19.7  18.1  21.4  20.7  24.2  26.2  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  30.0  32.0  34.0  30.0  12.0  19.0 104.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 127.3 106.6 116.5 135.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  77.0  80.0  67.0  94.0  75.0  56.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  77.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   8.0   4.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.2%        4.9%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h       15.1%       37.9%       26.5%
 30kt / 24h        7.1%       20.1%       13.6%
 35kt / 24h        4.0%       19.9%       12.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%       19.9%       10.4%
 45kt / 36h       14.7%       44.7%       29.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       23.0%       11.5%
 55kt / 48h       20.2%       19.2%       19.7%
 70kt / 48h       10.4%       15.5%       12.9%
 65kt / 72h       23.3%       25.6%       24.4%