Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222021 211007 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    110.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    140.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.0  20.5  19.5  18.9  23.3  18.9  27.3  25.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  35.0  33.0  30.0  20.0  22.0  37.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 118.6 122.9 135.0 129.6  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  80.0  66.0  70.0 108.0  55.0  64.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  76.0  76.0  78.0  77.0  78.0  79.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   7.0   6.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        3.5%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h       11.0%       33.0%       22.0%
 30kt / 24h        4.1%       17.3%       10.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%       16.0%        9.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%       16.0%        8.2%
 45kt / 36h        8.4%       35.3%       21.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       15.7%        7.9%
 55kt / 48h       18.0%       17.7%       17.8%
 70kt / 48h        6.8%       12.2%        9.5%
 65kt / 72h       15.6%       23.1%       19.4%