Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222021 211008 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    110.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     80.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    151.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  15.4  19.7  23.6  15.4  21.2  16.6  32.3  F  F  N  N  F  N  F  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  16.0  11.0   8.0  14.0  30.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 105.5  99.8  96.2 107.4 130.0  94.4  37.1  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  55.0  78.0 100.0  56.0  42.0  14.0  25.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  78.0  81.0  82.0  81.0  80.0  80.0  79.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   3.0   4.0   7.0   7.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        6.6%        4.5%
 25kt / 24h        9.0%       25.2%       17.1%
 30kt / 24h        3.2%       14.0%        8.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.2%       13.8%        8.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%       12.2%        6.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.0%       39.2%       21.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       23.0%       11.5%
 55kt / 48h       14.2%        4.6%        9.4%
 70kt / 48h        4.6%       16.8%       10.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        9.6%        5.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons