Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222021 211008 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.00    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     50.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.1  17.4  21.5  17.7  15.1  21.1  28.1  27.9  F  F  N  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0   6.0   4.0   7.0  94.0  73.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  F  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.8  87.7  84.3  89.4 125.0 125.0  27.3  32.1  N  N  N  N  N  N VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  55.0  73.0  58.0  47.0  40.0  20.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  81.0  81.0  80.0  82.0  80.0  80.0  73.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   4.0   2.0   8.0  10.0  15.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        2.3%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%        8.5%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        3.9%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        3.4%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.3%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        4.5%       25.9%       15.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.8%        6.4%
 55kt / 48h       15.2%        9.6%       12.4%
 70kt / 48h        7.9%        9.3%        8.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons