Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222021 211008 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.50    110.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    147.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  21.6  18.0  14.2  20.9  21.8  35.3  30.4  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   9.0  10.0  15.0  36.0  29.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.8  96.2  98.0 105.5 130.0 130.0  48.3  99.8  N  N  N  N  F  F  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  73.0  58.0  46.0  50.0  33.0  23.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  81.0  82.0  80.0  81.0  78.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   2.0   7.0   8.0  10.0   3.0   8.0  -1.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%        8.2%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.7%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.1%        1.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%       21.7%       12.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.7%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h        9.0%        8.2%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        6.4%        4.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons