Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222021 211009 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.00    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.3  13.9  13.1  16.7  15.7  39.6  36.4  55.2  F  F  F  F  F  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 115.7  98.0  80.0  87.7  94.4 101.6  46.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    75.0  54.0  54.0  38.0  25.0   8.0  -8.0  37.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  78.0  82.0  79.0  80.0  80.0  74.0  71.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  10.0   9.0  11.0   6.0   6.0  14.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.5%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.5%        8.1%        4.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.5%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.8%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%       11.6%        6.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.5%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        0.5%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        1.4%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons