Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP222021 211009 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    108.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  22.0  23.3  21.2  39.5  44.2  44.2  44.2  F  N  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  28.0  30.0  25.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 103.5 111.5 111.5 111.5  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  56.0  25.0  16.0  29.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  77.0  79.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  10.0  14.0  -1.0   3.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        1.8%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        3.3%       14.5%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        1.7%        5.9%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        5.6%        3.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        5.6%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.2%        7.6%        4.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%