Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232021 211010 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.10    159.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  23.7  24.9  26.3  21.1  25.6  34.5  37.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  113.0 111.0 106.0  96.0  76.0  67.0  62.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  53.0  51.0  61.0  67.0  74.0  41.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  68.0  61.0  56.0  54.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0   6.0   8.0   7.0   7.0  25.0  18.0  N  N  N  U  N  N VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.9%        7.4%        8.2%
 25kt / 24h       30.8%       44.0%       37.4%
 30kt / 24h       18.2%       22.4%       20.3%
 35kt / 24h        9.7%       21.0%       15.4%
 40kt / 24h        4.9%       21.0%       13.0%
 45kt / 36h       28.9%       52.4%       40.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       26.7%       13.3%
 55kt / 48h       40.5%       30.6%       35.6%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       23.4%       24.1%
 65kt / 72h       52.2%       29.5%       40.8%