Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232021 211010 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    159.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    101.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.6  21.8  25.2  26.0  26.1  34.6  33.4  38.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  102.0 101.0  67.0  66.0  84.0  52.0  40.0  28.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    84.0  85.0  79.0  74.0  71.0  77.0  53.0  82.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  71.0  72.0  68.0  60.0  55.0  51.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   8.0  11.0  14.0  15.0  23.0  25.0  N  N  U  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        9.3%        6.8%        8.1%
 25kt / 24h       27.5%       39.8%       33.6%
 30kt / 24h       15.9%       19.0%       17.4%
 35kt / 24h        7.1%       18.7%       12.9%
 40kt / 24h        7.1%       18.7%       12.9%
 45kt / 36h       26.5%       42.0%       34.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       17.1%        8.5%
 55kt / 48h       26.4%       18.2%       22.3%
 70kt / 48h       20.9%        9.6%       15.2%
 65kt / 72h       37.1%       12.4%       24.7%