Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232021 211010 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.20    158.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  26.2  32.8  27.6  30.9  33.5  32.4  36.2  N  N  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  102.0  91.0  82.0  70.0  69.0  66.0  59.0  46.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  79.0  74.0  68.0  78.0  67.0  59.0 105.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  67.0  63.0  57.0  53.0  56.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   7.0   5.0   7.0  13.0  21.0  21.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.1%        8.6%       10.3%
 25kt / 24h       31.5%       39.4%       35.5%
 30kt / 24h       18.5%       20.3%       19.4%
 35kt / 24h        9.8%       20.1%       14.9%
 40kt / 24h        9.8%       20.1%       14.9%
 45kt / 36h       23.7%       34.1%       28.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       13.2%        6.6%
 55kt / 48h       21.9%       15.8%       18.8%
 70kt / 48h       16.1%        7.0%       11.6%
 65kt / 72h       39.0%       11.1%       25.1%