Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP232021 211011 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    155.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  25.0  26.6  29.5  25.7  31.4  33.0  37.1  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   98.0  92.0  77.0  73.0  66.0  59.0  50.0  43.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  59.0  70.0  76.0  64.0  67.0  75.0 112.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  64.0  59.0  55.0  50.0  50.0  47.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0   7.0  10.0  10.0  11.0  19.0  13.0   9.0  U  N  U  U  U VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        2.3%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        9.3%       16.9%       13.1%
 30kt / 24h        5.2%        6.7%        6.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        6.0%        4.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        6.0%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        9.3%       12.1%       10.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h       12.2%        7.4%        9.8%
 70kt / 48h        7.9%        1.8%        4.9%
 65kt / 72h       39.5%        5.1%       22.3%