Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP242021 211010 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    126.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        10.8  15.3  15.4  17.7  24.8  31.8  36.1  38.4  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  75.0  69.0  72.0  49.0  27.0  27.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  81.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   119.0 113.0 117.0  94.0  59.0  24.0  47.0  29.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  73.0  77.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   0.0  -3.0   2.0  12.0  13.0  20.0  33.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       28.1%       23.1%       25.6%
 25kt / 24h       67.6%       75.3%       71.5%
 30kt / 24h       51.5%       62.2%       56.9%
 35kt / 24h       42.3%       62.2%       52.3%
 40kt / 24h       22.0%       62.2%       42.1%
 45kt / 36h       53.8%       72.7%       63.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       53.1%       26.6%
 55kt / 48h       42.1%       41.4%       41.8%
 70kt / 48h       24.8%       28.9%       26.8%
 65kt / 72h       14.3%       13.9%       14.1%